Barclays | FX & EM Macro Strategy - British Chamber of Commerce Dubai

Barclays | FX & EM Macro Strategy

Date Posted:Sun, 1st Sep 2019

BBG Member Barclays has shared this in-depth report into the currency market implications with a no-deal Brexit.

Special Report
20 August 2019

• We expect GBP to fall a further 9% on a NEER basis in a no-deal Brexit, mainly due to the expected short-run dislocations in the economy that we expect to result and the related policy response from the Bank of England.
• While we cannot exclude short-term ‘flash crashes’, we believe EURGBP will find a ceiling just below parity and GBPUSD will find a floor near 1.09.
• As the short-term shock to both economies settle, we expect the reduction in uncertainty to induce a rebound in GBP to near current depressed levels versus the EUR, but accelerated EUR weakness to keep cable suppressed near 1.09.

Click here to learn more about the key factors informing the forecast: the channels of transmission and the assumptions made to ground all forecasts.